This theme synthesises the results from the first three themes in order to assess and ultimately improve the ability of climate models to forecast climate change. Thus must take into account the complexity of the models, the huge number of model parameters, the sparsity of the available climate data, and the different uncertainties associated with these data. Topics in this area include quantification of uncertainty in forecasts, the study of different approaches for the assessment and ranking of model performance, data sets and methodologies for benchmarking, the effective communication of uncertainty in forecasts to different target audiences, and the development of testbeds.
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